via Goddard’s Journal / October 22, 2015 /

Study critiqued
Tsuda et al. (2015). Thyroid Cancer Detection by Ultrasound Among Residents Ages 18 Years and Younger in Fukushima, Japan: 2011 to 2014. Epidemiology. Oct 5.

Contrary opinion of Fukushima Medical University scientists conducting the screening campaign:…

Study predicting magnitude of detection bias in the Fukushima screening campaign:
Jacob et al. (2014). Ultrasonography survey and thyroid cancer in the Fukushima Prefecture. Radiat Environ Biophys. 53(2):391-401.
And: Radiat Environ Biophys. 2014 53(2):403.
Slide show by Jacob:
Expected influence of the accident on thyroid cancers…

Screening prevalence cited @ 3:05 is from the same source data used by the headline study here, in Table 8, page 9

Graph @ 4:10 derived from:…

Graphs from 4:25 derived from:
Williams D. (2015). Thyroid Growth and Cancer. Eur Thyroid J, 4(3), 164-173.

Japanese Cancer Registry data @ 5:09 from:…

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By Broc West| 5 Comments | Featured, News


  1. Goddards claims debunked.
    Mr Goddard is arguing that the massive increase in Thyroid cancer in the surveys is due to detection bias. He criticises the authors for not citing or discussing earlier papers which predicted high levels of occult cancers. However he fails to say that the authors did cite such studies, just not the ones that he likes. They referred in their paper to screening that was carried out by the Japanese Ministry of the Environment on 4365 children and adolescents living in Nagasaki, Aomori and Yamanashi in 2012. One thyroid cancer case was detected (1). The authors also refer to and discuss the screening exercise carried out by Wanatobe of 1137 Fukushima residents aged 18 or under in 2012 to 2013. This detected NO THYROID CANCER AT ALL (2) Rather than using these evidences of the level of occult cancer i.e.none, he would rather flag up the study from the Ukraine data which was obtained from a different population some 12 years after the Chernobyl exposure in a population drawn from an already exposed national database and fiddled with mathematically by the authors. So once again we see Mr Goddards pro nuclear bias and spin, presented in his usual creepy voice-over.
    Christopher Busby, Scientific Secretary ECRR
    (1) Japanese Ministry of the Environment. Result of the follow up survey on thyroid nodule.
    available at:
    (2) Wanatobe H et al. The thyroid status of children and adolescents in Fukushima prefecture examined during 20-30 months after the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster: a cross sectional observational study. PLoS One 2014. 9. e113804

  2. The Fukushima Medical University (FMU) screening campaign that Busby claims shows a “massive increase in Thyroid cancer” found 1 suspicious or malignant case per 2,682 subjects screened. [1] One of Busby’s two examples of other screening studies found 0 cases among 1,222 subjects screened. [2] And his other example found 1 case among 4,365 subjects screened. [3] Given that the FMU screening found 2 cases per 5,364 cases screened, both of his examples are statistically compatible with the FMU results.

    Therefore Busby’s and Tsuda’s own examples refute their thesis that the FMU screening discovered an unexpectedly high rate of thyroid cancer. That is part of why the FMU scientists themselves don’t believe their results demonstrate a radiogenic effect. ~Ian

    [1] The FMU screening campaign found 112 “suspicious or malignant case” out of 300,476 subjects screened, that’s 1 such case per 2,682 subjects as of FYI 2013 (see Table 8):
    [2] Wanatobe et al (2014):
    [3] Hayashida et al (2015):

  3. The link Dr. Busby provided for the first study didn’t work for me. It can also be found here:
    The second study can be found here

  4. Dr. Busby,
    The JME screening with one cancer has a prevalence of 229 per million, which is lower than all the regions, except region 9 which had no cancers. of the Tsuda et al paper. If by chance a second cancer had been found. in the JME screening, the prevalence would have doubled to 458, making it well within the range of the Fukushima district data.

    The Wanatobe H et al. screening with “NO THYROID CANCER AT ALL”, was done inside the Fukushima prefecture 20 to 30 months after the npp disaster. It’s an outside source, but of the same demographics and timeframe as the main cancer screening.

  5. On Dec. 11, 2015, the NRC declassified a report on Fukushima. This report was written on March 18, 2011. What does it say? “We now know that 100% of the total spent fuel was released to the atmosphere from unit 4.” All of this time, the have claimed to have removed these fuel rods, and said so with fake pictures on TV. Here is the link to the info; Fukushima Unit 4 Fuel Pool Media Fable Falling Apart Dec 12th 2015

    Just how bad is this? This link will give you some idea of just how bad. Note this first; the fuel pool in reactor 4 had mox fuel in it. This is the worst of the worst, as it comes from aged warheads that have been replaced, and is highly enriched with plutonium. There could have been as much as 6,000 POUNDS of plutonium in that fuel pool. There have been studies done which estimate that as little as 2 or 3 pounds of plutonium could, over eons, end life on earth. Look it up.
    When you look at this link, please note the other lie told in the info in this story. The melted fuel in the other three reactors are no longer; “in the buildings.” They are in the ground water under the buildings, setting in a river that continually flows into the Pacific. This is why the Pacific, is, to all intents and purposes, DEAD.
    Now, there were three more fuel pools in the other three reactor buildings. What do you think happened to them? Is the fuel just sitting there, waiting to be cleaned up? Not hardly. Those fuel pools also burned and went into the atmosphere. EACH fuel pool contained some 100 tons of spent fuel. Can anyone say, extinction level event?

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